On February 10, 2025, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports into the United States. On the same day, Trump also stated that there are "no exceptions or exemptions" to the relevant requirements, and that he will consider imposing tariffs on cars, chips, and drugs in the future.
After the announcement of this tax policy, the market was in a state of uproar. In addition to paying attention to major importing countries such as Canada and Mexico, the market also paid more attention to the impact on China's exports.
Firstly, aluminum products directly exported from China to the United States:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total amount of aluminum exported from China to the United States in 2024 was around 257000 tons, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. The annual export volume of China in 2024 was 6.303 million tons, an increase of 19.2% year-on-year. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports to the United States account for only about 4.1% of the total. Therefore, the quantity of aluminum products directly exported from China to the United States is limited, and the disturbance to China's overall export volume in the annual dimension is limited.
Secondly, aluminum products directly exported from China to the United States:
According to customs data, the total amount of aluminum products directly exported from China to the United States in 2024 was 524000 tons, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year; In 2024, the total export volume of aluminum products in China reached 3.205 million tons, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports to the United States account for 16.5%. Compared to aluminum products, the influence of aluminum products exported to the United States on China's overall exports has increased. However, from a global demand perspective, there are still many choices in overseas markets except for the United States. Chinese products are of good quality and reasonable price, combined with the advantage of internal and external price differences, and China's production capacity competitiveness is still strong.
In addition, it has been learned that domestic enterprises have not received much negative feedback on this policy, stating that in the short term, due to tax changes, processing fees need to be renegotiated, and the order volume may slightly decrease. However, in the long run, the US's own production capacity is difficult to meet its needs, and new production capacity takes time. The demand for imported aluminum products from China and other regions is still high, which may ultimately lead to higher aluminum prices in the US region and increased terminal procurement costs in the US.
Furthermore, China directly exports aluminum materials to Mexico and Canada
According to customs data, in 2024, China's direct exports of aluminum to Mexico and Canada totaled 885000 tons, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year; In 2024, China's annual export volume was 6.303 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In terms of proportion, in 2024, China's direct exports of aluminum to Mexico and Canada accounted for 14.06%.
Trump stated that there are "no exceptions or exemptions" for the 25% tariff this time, and Canada and Mexico, as the main aluminum suppliers, will be greatly affected. The tariff increase will soon result in higher costs for US terminals, which may cause a decline in US demand for aluminum. The export volume of Canada and Mexico may weaken, indirectly affecting the demand for Chinese aluminum.
In summary, the US policy of imposing a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports to the US has limited impact on China's aluminum exports, but it may increase the local spot premium in the US and further increase the procurement costs for domestic companies.